IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.4	#327
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.5	#272
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.4	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.0	#333

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.1%	3.2%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.1	15.7

.500 or above	3.7%	13.3%	3.0%
.500 or above in Conference	13.6%	27.1%	12.6%
Conference Champion	0.7%	2.3%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	43.1%	27.5%	44.3%

First Four	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%
First Round	0.9%	2.9%	0.8%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 14
Quad 4	5 - 8	7 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	128	@ Santa Clara	L	61-76	7%
Nov 11, 2019	153	@ North Dakota St.	L	63-77	10%
Nov 17, 2019	19	@ St. Mary's	L	53-80	1%
Nov 22, 2019	37	@ Creighton	L	61-86	1%
Nov 24, 2019	39	@ Iowa	L	64-89	2%
Nov 28, 2019	272	Tennessee St.	L	70-74	36%
Dec 07, 2019	251	Siena	L	62-64	42%
Dec 14, 2019	118	Fresno St.	L	64-75	18%
Dec 18, 2019	280	@ Sacramento St.	L	66-73	28%
Dec 21, 2019	197	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	65-70	34%
Dec 28, 2019	77	@ San Diego St.	L	59-79	4%
Jan 08, 2020	160	UC Santa Barbara	L	64-72	26%
Jan 11, 2020	208	Cal St. Northridge	L	75-79	35%
Jan 17, 2020	183	@ Hawaii	L	63-75	16%
Jan 23, 2020	296	@ UC Riverside	L	63-69	32%
Jan 25, 2020	106	@ UC Irvine	L	59-76	7%
Jan 30, 2020	213	Cal St. Fullerton	L	70-74	35%
Feb 01, 2020	266	@ UC Davis	L	63-71	26%
Feb 05, 2020	289	Long Beach St.	L	74-75	49%
Feb 08, 2020	183	Hawaii	L	66-72	32%
Feb 13, 2020	208	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	72-82	19%
Feb 15, 2020	213	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	67-77	19%
Feb 20, 2020	266	UC Davis	L	66-68	44%
Feb 22, 2020	296	UC Riverside	W	66-65	50%
Feb 27, 2020	106	UC Irvine	L	62-73	17%
Mar 05, 2020	289	@ Long Beach St.	L	72-78	31%
Mar 07, 2020	160	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	61-75	13%
Projected Record						6 - 21	5 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0				1.9	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.4	1.2	1.0	0.4	0.0						3.1	3rd
4th							0.0	0.8	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.0							5.3	4th
5th						0.1	1.4	3.7	2.4	0.5	0.0								8.0	5th
6th				0.0	0.1	2.1	4.7	3.2	0.5	0.0									10.7	6th
7th			0.0	0.7	3.7	6.7	4.2	0.6	0.0										15.9	7th
8th		0.2	2.4	6.8	8.5	4.1	0.7	0.0											22.8	8th
9th	3.5	8.2	10.0	7.0	2.6	0.3	0.0												31.6	9th

Total	3.5	8.4	12.4	14.5	15.0	13.3	11.0	8.3	5.7	3.7	2.0	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	78.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
13-3	79.4%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0
12-4	35.0%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
11-5	15.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%																				0.0			0.0
15-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
14-2	0.1%		36.1%	36.1%		14.0														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
13-3	0.2%		13.8%	13.8%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
12-4	0.5%		14.5%	14.5%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
11-5	1.3%		8.3%	8.3%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	1.2
10-6	2.0%		9.9%	9.9%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	1.8
9-7	3.7%		4.3%	4.3%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.5
8-8	5.7%		2.6%	2.6%		15.9														0.0		0.0	0.1	5.6
7-9	8.3%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.2
6-10	11.0%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.9
5-11	13.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	13.3
4-12	15.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	14.9
3-13	14.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	14.5
2-14	12.4%																							12.4
1-15	8.4%																							8.4
0-16	3.5%																							3.5

Total	100%		1.1%	1.1%	0.0%	15.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	98.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.6%